The consequences on the economic system
Transition crisis (1920-30=1980-90)
The macro-economic consequences of the introduction of
new technologies are far from neutral. Thus, towards the
end of the appropriation period of our first example,
a serious economic crisis took place (from 1929 onwards),
which can be compared with the economic crisis of the
1980s, which either took the form of a recession (Britain,
France, Italy) or a noticeable economic slowing down (Germany,
United States). A simple explanation is that the increased
productivity as a result of the introduction of new technology
meant that more could be produced with a smaller and smaller
workforce, resulting in higher unemployment. In this situation,
two scenarios are possible : either the economy enters
a vicious circle, where unemployment rises, consumer spending
power falls, the manufacturers drop their prices to shift
their production and thus have to lay off workers, which
results in even lower demand ...
The other possibility : at the same time as the new technologies
destroy jobs, they also allow the creation of new products
and services (computer products, telecommunications or
online services), and create new needs, which allows new
sectors of activity to develop and absorb the manpower
liberated by the declining industries. As you can imagine,
I share this vision of the future, but to be honest, things
are far from being that simple : those who find themselves
out of work, as a result of increased productivity due
to computer technology, are not always the best suited
to adapt to the new employment opportunities which require
very different qualifications. In other words, a certain
number of victims of the transition crisis will never
find another job, since they are incapable of adapting
to a work environment which has not only changed its working
methods but adopted a completely new culture, and this
is one of the most difficult obstacles to overcome.
In his books The Big Boom and Job Shock, the America
economist Harry Dent finds another solution for the present
transition crisis : households attain their maximum spending
power between the age of 40 and 50. It just so happens
that the huge baby-boom generation reaches this age during
the 1990s, resulting in a slight growth in demand and
an increase in economic activity.
What lessons can be learned ?
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